Gold Short term view

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Gold after Making new Life time High at 1226.25 $ , Saw Some Sharp correction & profit Booking in past three Weeks Correcting more than 11 % due to strengthing Dollar, manged to Closed today below the psychological level of 1100 $ making a Intraday low of 1095 $

Technical view: Gold has Multiple supports in the Range of 1085 $ --1070 $ . The Current fall should halt anywhere between these levels before it Resumes a pull back or Starts consolidating in Range of 1065 $--1123 $ . The First support is at 1083 $ which is Cuming from the trend line Support From the August 2009 Lows of 925 $ and Rising to above Levels . The Second Important Support Comes at 1078 $ which is 50 % Retracement Level of the Complete up move Which started from 922.5 $ in August 2009 to current high of 1226.25 $ December 2009 & below that is support coming From previous Resistance line - trend line Connecting the March 2008 high to Jan 2009 high Placed at 1070 $ . Sustained Trading below the 55 EMA at 1102 levels would mean that gold Is heading to test the above Mentioned Support levels


The daily charts Slow Stoch is completely in oversold zone and near the cross over suggesting a Small pull back is or consolidation near current levels cant be ruled out . The 14DRSI is at 39 approaching the Oversold zone .


A Close below 1070 $ level would Mean that gold in setting stage for a Longer term bearish market Opening further Possible downside till 1033 $ --1018 $-084 $

Comex Silver Short term view

What Next On Silver ???

Case a) marked With Pink Round Arrows Showing possibility of making of head & shoulder pattern case b ) Marked with orange arrow --- big Move & flag bullish flag consolidation

Case a) Silver If breaks 17.1 than a strong case of it forming Head & shoulder pattern over short term arises ..with neckline at 16.35 & breach below Same Would open an downside target of 14.1
Case b ) Shows that silver is consolidations Mood up after the large up move From 16$ to 17.75 $ and would breakout Soon ..any close abv 17.8 Would open upside Possible targets of 18.4--19.6

Summary : So the Most important lvls For Silver in short term are 16.35---17.1---17.8--18.4
While 17.1 indicating breakdown of Flag and test of Neckline at 16.35 possible & close abv 17.8 would mean that the short term Bullish Trend is still continued

Crude Short Term view

Crude oil has been Consildating in sideways channel For past two weeks after the big move from 65 $ to Recent high of 82 $ --- Looking closely at the Consolidation Looks like a bullish Flag and could consilidate for some More Days before breaking on upside opening potential targets of 87$--92$ in the Cuming Weeks

traders Can Look to Buy on every Dip and maintain a SL below 74 $ closing Basis or enter in Fresh Trades When Crude Breaks out of the Channel above 81.25 $

Resistance on upside 84$--87.5$--92$

Supports on Downside 76.7$--75.4$-74 $

Natural Gas Short Term view

Natural Gas Comex : Natural gas made new monthly low of 4.470 at start of the week to Exactly take support near the 55 EMA (marked by aqua line) on daily charts & bounced back to close near 4.665 lvls

Closely Looking at the EOD charts , yesterday Closing was a hammer Which Signals possibility of trend Reversal or Atleast some Sideways consilidation With Retracemnt . The Close is also Exactly the Near the Resistance of Falling trend Line which is Cuming From Recent top of 5.940

Traders Can take Small risk to go Long here with a SL below 4.351 Which is medium term strong Support and Look for a Possible Bounce on upside to Fib Retracemnet lvls of Complete Move From 5.940 to Low of 4.470 Trend Reversal level == 4.820 (23.6 %) --

5.105(38.2%) -- 5.265 (50 % retracement)

Looking at Indicators RSI is around 30 lvls & Fast Stoch is below avg 20 lvls Clearly indicating that its in oversold Zone and a Bounce cannot be Rulled out

Happy Diwali

May the divine light of diwali
spread into your Life
peace, prosperity, happiness
and good health.

hiii Everyone ,

First of all warm & personal wishes of Diwali to you & family , may u have the best of time going forward

Its been a month almost i Didnt post any updates on the blog , aplogies For Same . The Month back Was full of excitment and rough time for me .

On the good news Front as clearly advised to my paid Clients gold gave a Major breakout above 1012 as advised to them .

Sucessfully Conducted a Seminar For more than 150 MCX traders in Mumbai -- Gold the Next Blockbuster ---

The Seminar coverd Myths of commodity trading, use of technicals at its best , trading Strategies & genral physcology of trading -- all these would help a trade in best way to pick the right Commodity to trade and swer his Simple Question What to trade ?? & when to trade & what target to trade it for ??

The Seminar ended with a Short term view on GOLD, silver, Crude thats what all actually wanted " Market Kya lagta Hai"

Had a bit of down time too in between as my health Conditions were again bad and Couldnt spend Much time on posting things on website Though services to paid Clients were on time & excellent Calls were Deliverd Week on week basis ,

Mid last week just gave a Discount offer of 10 % on subscription Fees to yahoo Clients for new & old clients -- subscirbe for 3 Months at a go & get 10 % discount and the response on same was amazing . Those who missed it as i couldnt update on my blog ... Buzz me again before the 20thoct and avail same

Would be back to Posting the latest view post diwali -- and keep updateing you all

Finally Once again -- have a great Weekend ahead n joy Diwali with Maximum Friends & family

Chirag Kabani

http://www.askchirag.com/

Gold Short term view 200909

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Gold edged higher to 1025.8 last week but lost upside momentum ahead of 1033.9 key resistances. With bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, a short term top might be in place. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'd expect some pull back towards 983.2 support. Nevertheless, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 931.3 to 1025.8 at 967.4 and bring rally resumption. On the upside, while another rise might be seen, it now looks like 1033.9 key resistances will hold on first attempt and bring consolidations first.
Looking carefully at last week move which is first caution Sign for Bulls the weekly closing candle is DOJI clearly indicating a Indecisive Move Ahead. On the daily charts it has formed bearish engulfing pattern. The Continuous chart of 4 hours showing a Clear Candlestick bearish reversal pattern with a Shooting Star at the top. Looking at all the above condition and lead indicators which are widely the Next week Could Move in consolidation and Breach of previous week Low would Clearly Signal A Short term top in place. While some pull back might be seen in near term before decisive break of 1033.9, downside should be contained well above 931.3 support and bring rally resumption. However, note that a break of 931.3 dampen the bullish view and suggest that rise from 681 has completed. This will indicate indicate that such rise is merely part of the consolidation pattern that started at 1033.9.

Gold Supports & resistance For Next Week

Support at 996 --984--967

Resistance at 1012--1024-1033-1052-1084-1114--1129

Gold Short term technical view -

Gold Short term technical view : comex
Gold Short term view: Gold Closed down sharply below the 1000 $ mark, after making intraday High of 1007$. Profit Booking at current psychological level of 1000 Dollars cannot be ruled out as gold after consolidation for last weeks rallied Sharply and has reached this Crucial level again almost after six Months. Last time it made a High near this level was Exactly on February 20, 2009 making it a Double top on daily charts, Signally a Pause in the up-trend same time first caution Sign for the Bulls. Making 1007 $ now as very important Level Closely looking at the daily charts Can see a Nice inverted hammer - shooting star Formed at top Signally a pause in the current trend and the first caution Sign. The Reversal comes with Signals as Double top on daily charts, near the short term upward Trend line Resistance of Expanding triangle it was shaping up in last few weeks. Looking Closely at the Intraday 4 hour Chart which is widely followed, It made a good harami Reversal Exactly above the triangle breakout Level giving a False signal of buy near the top and reversed Sharply in the day to make New lows intraday .the Above all factors Shows that gold is Clearly loosening strength near the current Levels and Now will Face quite string Resistance at 1007-1012 mark , a breach above Same could upside up to 1033$ . As gold is now in the overbought zone which is indicated by the RSI on daily and Hourly charts any Rally on the upside above 1007 would mean shorts covering and nothing else. On the Downside if gold manages to Close below 984$ in a day or two would mean a confirmation of Short term possible top and could open possible Down side targets of 975$ & 955 $. Though Strong Support is Expected in zone of 928-942 $ , For Medium term . A close Below Same would open downside targets till 875 $

Trend Reversal levels: 984 $

Trend bias : Further Bullish Only above 1007 or else Sideways to down Possible

Next targets :975$-955$

(Reco:Note Those taking Fresh shorts at current level best possible SL is 1007 $ and Those Already long can Either Look to exit on Rise or maintain a trailling Stop Loss of 984 $)

Daily Technical view 040909

Comex Gold-GC : Reversed few Dollars just away from the psychological Level of 1000$, after making a Intraday High of 997$. A Strong up move has been Seen From 940$to 997$ , Expecting it face string Resistance in zone of 1004$ to 1008$ Range, Could Consolidate again a bit before Making new highsConsolidation Range : 974$-997$Trend Reversal Level: Close Below 963$Next target : 1004$

MCX gold : Gold prices Move dup sharply from sub 15000 Levels to 15800 Levels in weeks time , Some amazing strength. The Immediate Resistance Comes now near to 15916 & 16029 , Looking for it to be tested and could Consolidate also a bit before Same . Before Making Fresh moves Consolidation Range : 15500-15800 RangeNext target 16400

Comex Silver : tested the resistance of 16.22$ which was May Months high and again failed Same to close below 16.00$ , Would find Supports now at 15.65$ & 15.84 $ and Consolidate bit before making fresh Up moves for Possible target of 16.36-16.84Consolidation Range : 15.84-16.22 Next target : 16.36

MCX silver : Silver Prices managed to Surpass the Important resistance at 25650 and moved up sharply to make new high around 26250 Levels , Expecting it to consolidate a bit before any further fresh Moves , Supports now at 26101-25840Consolidation Range : 25760-26340Next target 27800 ( if closes above 26500)

Nymex Crude oil : Trading in indecisive to downwards bias Since past two days but managing to Close above 67.50$ , a Close Below same would Open downward targets till 64 $ and Move Past 70 $ again would open the possibilities of re test of recent high of 72.5$ & 73.46 $trend : sideways to Range bound

MCX crude oil : Managing to close above the crucial level of 3320 Since past few days after the sharp fall from 3510 , Need to wait and watch this is consolidation or halt before the next move starts or a Possible base building for a bounce again , weak below 3300 & intraday Bias turns Positive above 3400

Natural Gas Nymex : took Support Just above the first targets of 2.4$ as mentioned Earlier and closed sharply negative, would play in this small range now before Further making new Lows, on downside Strong Support at 2.41 & 2.355 $ close below Same could Open targets for physiological Levels of 2$

MCX natural gas : After the sharp Downfall intraday halted just above the Crucial Support level of 121, Would Play in small Range near this Zone 121-138, before Making fresh move. A close below 121 could open Downside Possible targets of 95

Base Metals MCX :
Copper is consolidating in Small Range of 298--313 Rupees , A Break On any side would indicate Further move

Lead strongest of all managed to cross above 110 opening upside possible targets of 114 & 120 in short term Reversal in trend if closes below 104

Nickel is looking weak with supports coming in at 882 & 866 Zone , a Close above 908 Would open upside target of 935 again on downside below 866-840

Zinc : zinc as been mangling to Stay above the important Support of 90 but not giving any fresh upside up move . A Move past 92.65 could open upside targets of 95- 98

Silver Technical Analysis Short term view

Silver Short Term view , Approching very important Resistance Zone

Silver Short Term view
Comex Silver: Silver Rallied quite sharply to retest the First Resistance zone of 16.22 which was high made in last week of May and Recent intermediate top. From where Silver fell Down to make a higher bottom at 12.50$ and again bounced back Sharply to re -test Same levels , Over the Short term once Silver Crosses 16.22$ it would be Entering the half unfilled gap which it had attempted to Fill in the month of may and Failed and this Second attempt on same . the Gap which is From 16.84$ to 15.44 $ created during downfall which started in August 2008 month, the Zone 16.22$ to 16.84 $ has Many intermediate Resistance in between which are very important once and can be a Strong resistance Zone firstly 16.35$ which is 61.8 % Fibonacci Retracements level of Complete Downward move Which Started From the top of 21.30$ to the lows of 8.44 $ . A Close above 16.36$ S Would clearly mean that the Complete correction from 21$ to 8.44 is Over and Silver again Ready to re-test the Recent highs and Even surpass Them in the medium term . Next Resistance in between is coming up from the trend line which is a Rising upward trend line connecting the Highs of gap made in August month to the May top which is Cuming around 16.4$ levels . So overall will have to Wait and Watch how Silver manages to trade in this Complete Resistance filled zone of 16.22$ to 16.84$ . A Firm close above 16.84$ would Mean that silver Is getting ready For Medium term bigger up move With Next possible targets at 17.8$ & 19.12$ in the near term . Looking at the lead indicators silver is currently at resistance Cuming from the weekly Bollinger band and On Daily charts has crossed the upper band with great Strength indicating that could soon get into a consolidation phase for few Days before making fresh up move or Next move. The RSI daily charts is near 74 almost approaching the upper end of Overbought Zone (Please note: a Stock or commodity Can continue it’s up move though the indicators are in overbought zone for Long time).The MACD is still in Buy sign Zone

Natural Gas updated view

Please Note : Writing This and No charts posted as getting Loads of Yahoo queries & please may i have Hymble request Do Not Call upon Cell phone For NG queries as i would Reply on Same written below , i Dont mean to be rude ..but my view Remains Same
.... i am Sorry
Close to First target of 2.41 mentioned before almost , will have to Wait and watch How it reacts in this Zone and Consolidates Here . To give the Next possible targets , a Close below 2.40 Would open 2.35--2.226 targets

MCX traders : My view Once Again : NG is continueing its Bearish trend , No Short term or Even intraday bottom Seen , any one taking Long would be just taking a high Risk with hopes of Some Short Covering or buying at Lower level which will pull it up ..but as if Now on Charts No Buying Sign visible ..or even a Intraday Bottom ...Requesting people to Follow Same and wait for Futher message ..Every one has Different buying price and If u ask Me best possible SL than it could be 121 Which indicated is Long term Support zone ..but that Doesnt mean Start taking longs with as SL too ...

Repeating on the Spread part again the Difference between October Contract and September is Increasing Evey Day ..Dont try and Buy September and Sell october the Spread is increasing From 38 bucks to 61 Now ..and i Dunno how much More it will increase or Reduce and why the Spread ...this is not a Arbitrage or hedge Which u can play ...