Natural Gas medium term Update -- Supports & Resistance

Natural gas Started the Last leg of Major downfall From 4.954 in month of may Falling more than 45 % currenty trading at 2.71 $ , the Complete Downfall Looks like a clear 5 wave structure where at this point of time we  are in v of 5 of C ,

The possible pattern targets where Natrual gas Could find support is Currently at 2.55 $ (wave 5 = 1.618% of wave 1) , The Complete downfall is in a Clear Downward Channel Which has important channel support at 2.62--2.65 $ zone  $

Hence This Current Zone of 2.55$ --- 2.67$ Zone is Very important Support Zone for Longterm ,                 On daily charts the RSI 14 is currently at 29 Which is almost approaching the oversold Zone. at This point of time we Dont have any reversal pattern visible which May indicate that the prices have bottomed out , but it Clearly is not a Place to go Shorts for medium term Unless these Supports are broken , If broken we May head to immediate Next support at 2.38

 

Looking at the Long term weekly charts We may be in Process of Making a B wave Low and a High probability of Major reversal From current Levels For Next 6--9 Months cant be rulled out

But before taking Any Longs one has to wait For Confirmation of Price reversal as price is King and Once confirmed the Upside Projected targets would be 3.65--4.25 Immediately and Much Higher If this Levels are taken out again

Natural gas Short term view

Natural Gas Short Term view

Natural Gas Comex : Natural gas made new monthly low of 4.470 at start of the week to Exactly take support near the 55 EMA (marked by aqua line) on daily charts & bounced back to close near 4.665 lvls

Closely Looking at the EOD charts , yesterday Closing was a hammer Which Signals possibility of trend Reversal or Atleast some Sideways consilidation With Retracemnt . The Close is also Exactly the Near the Resistance of Falling trend Line which is Cuming From Recent top of 5.940

Traders Can take Small risk to go Long here with a SL below 4.351 Which is medium term strong Support and Look for a Possible Bounce on upside to Fib Retracemnet lvls of Complete Move From 5.940 to Low of 4.470 Trend Reversal level == 4.820 (23.6 %) --

5.105(38.2%) -- 5.265 (50 % retracement)

Looking at Indicators RSI is around 30 lvls & Fast Stoch is below avg 20 lvls Clearly indicating that its in oversold Zone and a Bounce cannot be Rulled out

Natural Gas updated view

Please Note : Writing This and No charts posted as getting Loads of Yahoo queries & please may i have Hymble request Do Not Call upon Cell phone For NG queries as i would Reply on Same written below , i Dont mean to be rude ..but my view Remains Same
.... i am Sorry
Close to First target of 2.41 mentioned before almost , will have to Wait and watch How it reacts in this Zone and Consolidates Here . To give the Next possible targets , a Close below 2.40 Would open 2.35--2.226 targets

MCX traders : My view Once Again : NG is continueing its Bearish trend , No Short term or Even intraday bottom Seen , any one taking Long would be just taking a high Risk with hopes of Some Short Covering or buying at Lower level which will pull it up ..but as if Now on Charts No Buying Sign visible ..or even a Intraday Bottom ...Requesting people to Follow Same and wait for Futher message ..Every one has Different buying price and If u ask Me best possible SL than it could be 121 Which indicated is Long term Support zone ..but that Doesnt mean Start taking longs with as SL too ...

Repeating on the Spread part again the Difference between October Contract and September is Increasing Evey Day ..Dont try and Buy September and Sell october the Spread is increasing From 38 bucks to 61 Now ..and i Dunno how much More it will increase or Reduce and why the Spread ...this is not a Arbitrage or hedge Which u can play ...

Natural Gas Technical Analysis 6th Aug2009

NG has been Trading inside a parallel Range Since last few Days , Break on any Side Could give a Fresh Move on any side , On upside 4.200 is very Importnat Reistance a Close above Same would Mean that the trend has Reversed and Now its Buy on Dips opening as upside trgt of 5.40$ and 7$ For Medium term As If Now . On Downisde Supports are near 3.882$--3.460--3.165$ , A close below 3.165 % would Mean that the correction is still on and Could try hit the new Possible Downside trgt of 2.41$

www.askchirag.com

Natural Gas Technical Analysis 2nd July 2009

Natural Gas After Breaking down , Re tested the Breakdown trendline , Look at the yellow trendline , it Indicates that the short term bearish view continues , but Same time at lows a Hammer has been Formed , So would Recommed Clients to go Long again abv the Trendline and Consider the break Down As whipsaw & same time if breaks the Low than its a Confirmed breakdown with volumes also Supporting same

MCx traders who are Long maintain 179 as SL and those who are short maintain 186 Trailling SL

Personally i am On bearish view and would prefer to Remian Short below 186 . A Close above Same would get the Commodity in netural Zone and close abv 194 would Reopen bullish Scene..

natural gas Technical Analysis 1st July 2009

Natural Gas after Reversing From the short term bottom of 3.255 has been trending in A larger traingle as Indicated in graph, Currently trading at 3.783 Which Is almost Near the lower End of triangle ,

Looking From the onther angel view its been Sideways in a channel for past two week who's Support is also nearby at 3.750 Levels . Natural gas gives lot of whipsaws So as to trade the pattern being on Safe side . If NG breaks 3.715 Level as Indicated it open Downward trgts of 3.570 Which is good 8-10 % down , Looking on the upside it has Strong Resistance at 3.950 & 4.14 Levels a Move past that would Indciate the Recent down Fall has halted From 4.375 and the trend turns to be Netural still traidng inside larger triangle and one has to wait to see which side it gives a fresh breakout

Note : We have a open Reco Postional NG short at 186 MCX price With Sl at 194

Natural gas Technical Anaysis 24th june2009

Natural gas After making the Short term Bottom has been moving in a larger triangle with the Current support coming at 3.7735 . A 4 hour average close below Same could change the trend From sideways consolidation to further downward move of 3.55--3.15 , Which are possible targets from break of Ascending triangle